We don't have long to wait to find out whether softball and baseball are going to get back to the Olympics in 2020.
After the two sports – now known officially as baseball/softball – were short-listed back in May along with wrestling and squash for the one place available on the 2020 Olympic programme, speculation about our chances has been growing. But the answer should be forthcoming on or around September 8, when the full membership of the International Olympic Committee convenes in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
During the session, scheduled from September 7-10, the IOC will elect a new President to replace Jacques Rogge of Belgium, select the host city for the 2020 Games, and add one new sport to the 2020 programme.
The choice of the host city could be important for baseball/softball's chances. The IOC will choose between Istanbul, Madrid and Tokyo as hosts for the 2020 Games, and the host that would be most enthusiastic about having our sports in the Games would clearly be Tokyo.
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Politics in play
As always, however, the politics of international sport will play heavily in the final decision.
The International Baseball and Softball Federations officially combined to form the World Baseball Softball Confederation (WBSC) last year because the IOC had indicated that this would enhance the sports' chances, with men's baseball and women's fastpitch softball seen as two formats of a single sport.
By putting the two sports together, baseball/softball can certainly now point to far more participants worldwide than either wrestling or squash can offer. But will the numbers game be enough?
Another strong indication from the IOC Executive over the past few years has been that for baseball/softball to have a chance of being restored to the Olympic programme, some way would need to be found for Major League players to take part in the Olympic baseball tournament.
While Major League Baseball officials have made noises about finding a way to make that happen, MLB Commissioner Bud Selig has repeatedly stated that there is no way that the MLB season will be shut down to allow MLB players to participate in the Olympics. Whether some formula can be found for MLB players to take part while the MLB season continues remains to be seen – but Selig's uncompromising stance certainly isn't helping our chances.
Nor is the well-publicised suspensions of Alex Rodriguez and a dozen other Major League and Minor League players for performance-enhancing drugs announced at the beginning of August – although some argue that this could be a positive, as it shows that professional baseball is now dealing more successfully with PEDs.
These two issues – which are entirely to do with baseball rather than softball – have led many people to wonder whether it was the right decision for softball to tie its chances so irrevocably to baseball in the quest for Olympic reinstatement, after years of opposing such an approach.
Grounds for optimism?
Nevertheless, many people who felt that baseball/softball stood no chance of restoration to the Olympic programme while it was one of eight candidate sports vying for one place have felt encouraged by the fact that our sports were short-listed along with squash and wrestling by the IOC Executive in May. A one-in-three chance feels a lot better than one-in-eight.
Also encouraging is a feeling on the part of WBSC leaders that outgoing IOC President Jacques Rogge is unlikely to actively campaign against our sports, as they believe he has done in the past. Because Rogge will be turning over the IOC leadership to a successor, they believe he will remain neutral this time when it comes to the vote on adding a sport to the 2020 programme.
And what of the other two sports that stand in baseball/softball's way?
Wrestling was unexpectedly dropped from the Olympic programme as recently as February this year – but then a worldwide groundswell of opinion was mobilised on behalf of a sport that goes all the way back to the Olympics of ancient Greece. This groundswell carried wrestling onto the shortlist. But will the IOC really be prepared to vote out a sport, and then vote it back in seven months later? No one knows the answer to that question.
Squash also has some problems. It tends to lack headline names known around the world – something the IOC prefers – and whether squash will really make a compelling television spectacle, as the IOC demands, is also open to question. Baseball/softball (especially baseball) would seem to have more to offer with regard to both those issues.
Consequences
Right now, nobody knows what decision the full membership of the IOC will reach in September – or why they will make the decision they do. There is a strong feeling among those campaigning for baseball/softball that they have the necessary votes from IOC members to prevail – but softball and baseball leaders were also confident they had the necessary votes when both sports were dropped from the Games at the IOC session in July 2005 in Singapore.
Of course, there is a huge amount at stake for both our sports, but perhaps especially for softball. Whatever happens, the huge cash cow that is Major League Baseball remains a source of support for the International Baseball Federation and for baseball around the world, while softball has no comparable source of funds or support. The very existence of the International Softball Federation and its development work have been tied to Olympic funding ever since the sport had its first Olympic outing in 1996 in Atlanta, and the ISF has been gradually running down the last remaining Olympic funds it received after the 2008 Games in Beijing, with nothing else coming in to replenish the coffers.
In fact, there is some indication that the creation of the WBSC and a combined baseball/softball Olympic bid has less to do with getting back to the Olympics than with the fact that Major League Baseball promised financial support for both international federations going forward if they combined, which would be a lifeline for the ISF.
Should baseball/softball be the chosen sport, there will be huge benefits. Not just the ultimate benefit of Olympic participation and exposure, but a gradual restoration of income streams from government funding and sponsorship that have been drying up around the world ever since our Olympic exclusion. This will be particular vital for softball, which has seen slowly declining participation numbers in many countries, including key softball hot-spots such as Canada and Australia, since 2005.
Olympic reinstatement will give softball a basis on which to develop and grow again, and a vision to offer young and aspiring players.
Should our sports not be chosen, then the consequences may well be continued decline – again, more for softball than baseball.
So there is a very crucial day for our sport coming up shortly. The entire sporting world will be paying attention.